Irish Unification Plebiscite Must Not Turn Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Commentators Alert

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."